China’s AI chatbot race just got a holiday-sized accelerant.
Alibaba says it will spend 3 billion yuan (about $431 million) to pull users into its Qwen app during the Lunar New Year period — a marketing surge that’s bigger than the holiday pushes recently announced by Tencent and Baidu.
This isn’t just about downloads. It’s a fight for habit. And in China, the holiday season is the best time to manufacture it.
Why Lunar New Year is the ultimate user-acquisition battlefield
The Lunar New Year travel-and-family window concentrates attention like nothing else:
- hundreds of millions on the move
- more idle time (and more phone time)
- group chats, gifting, entertainment spending
- cultural norms around “red envelopes” that translate cleanly into app incentives
Tech companies have used this moment for years to lock in new behaviors—because if someone learns a new digital habit during the holiday, it can stick into the new year.
The playbook: incentives + “red envelopes” + daily use loops
Alibaba’s plan is set to begin February 6, built around consumer rewards tied to everyday life—dining, drinks, entertainment, and leisure—with “large red envelopes” distributed continuously.
The exact form of the rewards matters. Are these cash-like envelopes, or platform coupons and discounts? Alibaba hasn’t spelled that out, but either way the goal is the same: create repeated reasons to open Qwen, ask questions, share outputs, and invite friends.
Tencent and Baidu aren’t sitting out
This is a three-way sprint:
- Tencent announced a 1 billion yuan promotion for its Yuanbao chatbot, with rewards linked to WeChat wallets.
- Baidu said it would spend 500 million yuan on a similar holiday push.
Alibaba’s 3 billion yuan number effectively says: we’re not nibbling; we’re taking the lane.
The ghost in the room: 2015 proved red envelopes can change markets
China’s tech scene remembers one holiday campaign like a legend: in 2015, Tencent used WeChat red envelopes to turbocharge WeChat Pay adoption and close the gap with Alipay, which had been dominant in mobile payments.
That history is why these campaigns aren’t treated as “seasonal marketing.” They’re treated as strategic warfare: holiday gimmicks that can turn into permanent market share.
What’s changed in 2026: AI needs “daily life” distribution, not just hype
Chatbots don’t win just by being smart. They win by being:
- easy to access
- socially shareable
- embedded into where people already live online
- tied to real-world utility (shopping, travel, payments, entertainment)
Alibaba can plug AI engagement into its commerce universe (including Taobao), while Tencent can route rewards through the WeChat ecosystem. That distribution advantage is why the marketing war is so intense—because whoever gets habit formation now could own the “default assistant” slot later.
The competitive pressure point: DeepSeek changed the tempo
The AI rivalry has accelerated sharply since DeepSeek’s R1 model helped kick off a faster cycle of domestic competition and adoption. And the arms race isn’t slowing: the next wave of model upgrades is already expected around mid-February, right inside the holiday window.
In other words: this isn’t a one-off promo. It’s a synchronized strike—marketing spend paired with model momentum.
What to watch next
- Retention after the holiday: Do users keep coming back after the red envelopes stop?
- Cash vs coupon economics: Which incentives drive real engagement without destroying margins?
- Virality mechanics: Which app gets the most sharing and referrals (the real growth engine)?
- Monetization path: Can any of these chatbot apps turn holiday attention into paid usage, commerce conversion, or enterprise revenue?
- Model differentiation: As core capabilities converge, brand + distribution may matter more than raw IQ.
Bottom line
Alibaba’s $431 million Lunar New Year push is a statement: China’s AI chatbot war has moved from “who has the best model” to “who can buy and keep the most daily users.”
The holiday is the arena, red envelopes are the weapon, and the prize is simple: become the AI app people open without thinking.
