U.S. stock index futures barely moved Friday morning, with traders essentially choosing to stand still until the data hits. With a packed slate of releases (growth, inflation, business activity, sentiment) and fresh geopolitical and policy headlines in the background, the market’s posture was simple: don’t get cute before the numbers.
A “data barrage” morning
Investors were bracing for a cluster of reports that can quickly reshape expectations for Federal Reserve cuts in 2026—especially if growth cools while inflation stays sticky. On the docket:
- the preliminary Q4 GDP estimate
- the PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
- February readings on business activity and consumer sentiment
Futures: basically flat
The early read on risk appetite was “neutral-to-cautious.” Around 6:09 a.m. ET, S&P 500 e-minis were fractionally lower, Nasdaq futures fractionally higher, and Dow futures slightly down—small moves that screamed “waiting mode,” not conviction.
AI anxiety hasn’t disappeared—it’s just paused
The market’s AI narrative has been volatile: investors still love the theme, but they’re increasingly picky about proof—profits, margins, and real monetization. Tech and other sectors have been whipsawed by worries that new models could disrupt business pricing power, while recent stumbles in big names have made sentiment jumpy.
Two wild cards hovering over the session
Even before the economic prints, traders were also tracking:
- U.S.–Iran tensions, which had been supporting a risk premium and keeping energy on alert
- a looming Supreme Court decision on Trump’s emergency tariffs, a legal overhang that could affect corporate outlooks and trade expectations
Movers that showed the tape’s nerves
With indexes quiet, single-stock moves did more talking:
- Akamai slid sharply in premarket after forecasting profit below expectations.
- Crypto-linked stocks rose as bitcoin pushed higher, lifting names tied to digital-asset exposure.
Bottom line
Friday’s muted futures weren’t a sign of calm—they were a sign of compressed uncertainty. Wall Street was waiting to see whether the U.S. economy is cooling, whether inflation is re-accelerating, and how much policy risk (tariffs, geopolitics) might hit the outlook next. In a market like this, the biggest move often starts right after the “boring” open.
