China’s President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump held a call on February 4 that both sides portrayed as constructive — a rare moment of attempted stabilization in a relationship that’s been bouncing between trade friction and security flashpoints.
The headline takeaway: economics offered the olive branch, and Taiwan defined the limits.
Soybeans: the fastest way to signal “we can still deal”
Trump said the call was “very positive” and suggested China is considering a sizeable increase in purchases of U.S. soybeans this season — a move that immediately read as a deliberate goodwill gesture toward U.S. farmers and domestic politics.
Markets reacted the way markets do when a major buyer signals demand: soybean futures jumped sharply. Whether the final numbers land exactly where floated is less important than the message: both sides know soybeans are a clean, fast, politically meaningful dial to turn.
Taiwan: Beijing’s warning arrives right on schedule
Even as the mood was framed as positive, China used the moment to restate its position on the most combustible issue in the relationship: U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
Beijing’s public summary emphasized that Washington should “carefully handle” arms sales — a familiar warning, but one that matters because Taiwan policy remains the most likely arena for sudden escalation. The U.S. maintains unofficial ties with Taiwan and is legally bound to help it defend itself, while China views Taiwan as its territory and rejects any move that strengthens Taiwan’s military posture.
In short: trade can thaw things; Taiwan can freeze them overnight.
A possible Beijing trip — and why timing matters
The call also fed speculation about a potential Trump trip to Beijing in April. If that happens, this phone conversation functions like a “set the table” moment: lower tensions, identify deliverables, and create a path to a visit that looks like diplomacy rather than crisis control.
That’s the playbook. The hard part is execution.
Beyond soybeans: the broader bargaining pile
The leaders also reportedly touched on a wider menu of issues — the kind that show how intertwined the rivalry is:
- trade and tariffs
- energy and commodities
- geopolitical conflicts (including Ukraine and Iran)
- strategic stability and arms-control dynamics
None of these topics is simple. But the fact they’re being discussed in a single leader-to-leader call suggests something important: both capitals want to manage the relationship, not let it drift into uncontrolled confrontation.
Why this call matters
This wasn’t a peace treaty. It was a signal.
Both sides appear to be trying to preserve a baseline of stability, even while keeping their core positions intact:
- the U.S. wants leverage on trade, supply chains, and strategic competition
- China wants to prevent pressure from hardening into long-term containment
- both want to reduce the risk of a miscalculation that detonates markets
And the “soybeans + Taiwan” combination is the clearest expression of how this relationship works now: cooperation happens in the low-friction economic lanes; tension lives in the security lanes.
What to watch next
If this call is more than a headline, you’ll see follow-through in a few places:
- concrete trade moves (not just talk)
- signals on tariffs or tech restrictions
- next steps on a potential Beijing visit
- any changes in the tempo of Taiwan-related announcements
Bottom line: the Xi–Trump call looks like an attempt to reintroduce predictability — but the relationship is still built on a fragile trade-off: the moment the security agenda flares, the economic goodwill can evaporate.
