Global markets started the week with a familiar 2026 rhythm: a sharp narrative shift, a quick repositioning, and money rushing back into risk.
On February 10, 2026, world shares nudged back to record highs, led by Japan’s continued rally after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election win. The move wasn’t just a local celebration—it rippled across Asia and into Europe, helping stabilize sentiment after last week’s AI-fueled shakeout in tech and software.
Japan takes the wheel — and surprises the skeptics
Japan was the day’s engine. Stocks extended gains for a third straight session, with the Nikkei carving out another high. The logic is straightforward: markets expect fiscal stimulus and a clearer political runway.
But the real twist was what didn’t happen. Instead of the yen and Japanese government bonds weakening (a common fear when stimulus is expected), both strengthened, hinting that investors are leaning into the “stability + growth” story rather than panicking about debt or policy looseness.
Tech tries to find its footing after the AI punch
Last week’s market drama centered on a simple fear: rapidly improving AI tools could undercut the pricing power of large chunks of the software universe. That sparked a brutal rotation.
This week began with something calmer: tech didn’t roar—it steadied. The vibe shifted from “AI apocalypse” to “okay, now let’s figure out who actually benefits.” The market is still bullish on innovation, but it’s getting more selective: being “tech” isn’t automatically the same as being a winner.
The U.S. data calendar is the real boss fight
Investors are now staring at a dense cluster of U.S. releases—retail sales, jobs, and inflation—with a twist: some key data has been delayed, piling more importance onto what lands next.
The subtext is interest rates. Softer labor momentum makes it easier for the Federal Reserve to eventually cut, which is why traders are watching the jobs number like it’s a referendum.
Dollar drifts, yen flexes, and Treasury chatter returns
Currency markets reflected that rate-cut sensitivity. The dollar stayed soft, especially versus the yen, while U.S. Treasury yields edged around as traders priced the week’s data risk.
Also back in the conversation: China and Treasuries. Fresh reporting about Chinese regulators advising institutions to curb U.S. Treasury exposure revived the “concentration risk” narrative—one more reason the dollar couldn’t find much lift.
Other pressure points look… quieter
Two recent stress zones looked more controlled:
- Britain: Markets were calmer after a bout of political nerves the day before.
- Indonesia: Local markets stayed composed despite index-related headlines that can sometimes spook foreign flows.
It all contributed to a broader “risk-on, but cautiously” mood.
Commodities: oil firms, precious metals ease
Oil ticked higher, consistent with the mild rebound in risk appetite. Meanwhile, gold and silver slipped, giving back some shine after recent volatility. In 2026, even the “safe havens” are trading like they drink espresso.
The takeaway
The early-week message is simple: Japan’s rally is doing real global work, tech is trying to stop bleeding, and the dollar is waiting on U.S. data to tell it what story it’s supposed to believe.
But this market still has a hair trigger. In a world where elections, AI tool releases, and macro prints can all move trillions, the next shock is never far away—it’s usually just scheduled.
