Canada’s minority Parliament is one election night away from turning into a majority government.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has called three federal by-elections for April 13 — contests that, if the Liberals win them, would push the party over the line into majority territory in the House of Commons. It’s a move that looks procedural on paper, but politically it’s huge: a majority would let Carney govern without relying on opposition parties to pass bills.
The stakes: 169 seats vs. the magic 172
Right now, the Liberals hold 169 seats. A majority requires 172.
That means these three races aren’t just “filling vacancies.” They are a direct route to full control of Parliament — at least on paper.
Where the votes will happen
Carney’s by-elections are set for:
- Scarborough Southwest (Toronto)
- University–Rosedale (Toronto)
- Terrebonne (near Montreal)
The two Toronto ridings are widely viewed as safe Liberal seats. Terrebonne is the wild card — more competitive, and politically symbolic.
Why Terrebonne is back on the ballot
Terrebonne isn’t vacant because of a resignation. It’s back in play because the Supreme Court nullified the Liberals’ one-vote win there, following a challenge tied to a mail-in (special ballot) voting issue.
That makes Terrebonne more than a seat count: it’s the “legitimacy rematch” riding — and the one most likely to decide whether Carney gets a majority or stays in minority gridlock.
The defections that set this up
The Liberal seat count also got a recent boost from three Conservative MPs who crossed the floor:
- Chris d’Entremont
- Michael Ma
- Matt Jeneroux
Jeneroux pointed publicly to Carney’s high-profile World Economic Forum speech in Davos — where Carney condemned economic coercion by great powers — as part of what pushed him to switch sides.
Those defections didn’t create the vacancies, but they tightened the math and made a majority suddenly feel within reach.
The twist: even a “majority” could still be fragile
Even if the Liberals win all three seats and hit 172, it could still be a razor-thin kind of majority.
Why? The Speaker of the House (currently Francis Scarpaleggia) does not vote except to break ties. If the Liberals’ majority depends on counting the Speaker, it can become a “majority that behaves like a minority” whenever there’s an absence, illness, resignation, or internal dissent.
So yes — Carney could gain formal majority status. But it may still be politically delicate.
What a Liberal majority would change immediately
If Carney secures a true working majority, three things shift fast:
- Legislation moves faster
No more bargaining for every major vote. - Opposition leverage collapses
Confidence votes stop being constant hostage situations. - Carney’s mandate becomes clearer
Majority control signals voters and MPs have effectively endorsed his direction since replacing Justin Trudeau in 2025 — including his push to move the party toward the political center.
Bottom line
April 13 is shaping up as a quiet date with loud consequences.
If the Liberals take two “safe” Toronto seats and hold Terrebonne, Carney moves from minority management to majority power — even if it’s a narrow, high-maintenance kind of majority. If they lose Terrebonne, the country stays in minority dynamics, where every bill remains a negotiation.
